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How to find business opportunities: where they come from, and which ones are worth the year they cost

Nobody has a shortage of business ideas. What people are short of is a reason to believe one of them. This guide is about the second thing: where opportunities reliably come from, and what has to be true before you spend a year on one.

On this page

  1. 1The six places business opportunities come from
  2. 2An idea is not an opportunity
  3. 3Checking one against evidence
  4. 4Ranking several against each other
  5. 5Business opportunities in Vietnam specifically

The six places business opportunities come from

Opportunities are not evenly distributed across the world; they cluster around changes. These six sources account for most of them, and knowing which one you are looking at tells you how much time you have.

  • A price that just fell. Something that cost too much last year now costs little enough to build a business on, and the market has not repriced yet.
  • A rule that just changed. New regulation creates obligations, and obligations create buyers who have no choice about needing an answer.
  • A workflow people still do by hand. Any process where the current tool is a spreadsheet plus a person is a business waiting to be built, and the spreadsheet is public evidence of it.
  • An incumbent that stopped caring. A category leader raising prices while its reviews get worse is leaving a segment behind on purpose, and saying so in public.
  • A market that exists elsewhere. Something ordinary in one country and absent in another — the cheapest opportunity to spot and the easiest to get wrong, because the reason it is absent is sometimes a good one.
  • A group nobody translated for. A product that works fine except that it does not speak the language, take the payment method, or issue the invoice format a whole country requires.

An idea is not an opportunity

An idea is something you thought of; an opportunity is something that is true. The test is whether the statement survives being written without you in it. An app that helps restaurants manage stock is an idea. Independent restaurant owners lose several hours a week reconciling stock by hand and pay an assistant to do it is an opportunity — it is a claim about the world that is either true or false, and you can go and check.

Writing the sentence in that form is not a stylistic preference. It is the step that makes the next one possible, because a claim about the world can be checked against evidence and a description of a product cannot.

Checking one against evidence

Four checks, in this order, because each one is cheaper than the one after it and any of them can end the enquiry. Are there distinct people saying this, or one person with an audience? Does the complaint mention a cost — money, hours, or a workaround they maintain? Is anyone already paying for a worse answer? And is the rate of new complaints holding up, or was the peak eighteen months ago?

The fourth check is the one people skip, and it is the one that distinguishes a market you are early for from a market you are late for. Both look identical in a total count.

Ranking several against each other

Most people do not have one candidate, they have nine, and the real question is which one to spend the year on. Score each on the same axes rather than arguing about them: how many distinct people, how much it costs them, how well the current answers serve them, and which way the last few months point. Then take the one with the widest gap between demand and competition, not the one with the highest demand.

Highest demand is where everyone else also looked. The widest gap is where the demand is real and nobody has arrived yet, which is a different list and usually a less exciting one to read.

Business opportunities in Vietnam specifically

A local market has one structural advantage over a global one: the evidence is written in a language the global incumbents do not read. Vietnamese app-store reviews, forum threads and trade-group posts document demand in detail, and almost none of it reaches an English-language research process — which means the underserved segments stay underserved for longer than the same segment would elsewhere.

The site tracks that market as its own index, scored on the same axes as the global one, so the comparison between a local gap and a global one is a comparison of numbers rather than of intuitions.

Opportunities with demand well above competition

Measured from public posts, updated continuously — every row links to its evidence

1
Frequent Banking App Errors
Banking & Payment Apps
43.4
7.0%

Also being tracked

The highest-scoring opportunities in the index right now

1
Negative Reviews of Subscription Packages
SaaS
50.7
2
Frequent Errors and Slow Access
Banking & Payment Apps
50.5
3
Banking: Failed Update Version
Banking & Payment Apps
50.5
1.0%
4
Zalo messaging app issues and errors
Mobile Apps
50.9
4.4%
5
Logistics: Late Deliveries and No Pickup
Delivery & Logistics Apps
56.1
1.1%

Frequently asked

How do I find a business opportunity?
Look where something recently changed — a price that fell, a rule that changed, an incumbent that stopped caring — then check the change against public complaints from distinct people who are paying a cost because of it.
What is the difference between a business idea and a business opportunity?
An idea is a product you thought of; an opportunity is a claim about the world that is either true or false. Write it without yourself in the sentence — if it can no longer be checked, it was an idea.
Which business opportunity should I choose if I have several?
The one with the widest gap between measured demand and competition, not the one with the highest demand. Highest demand is where everyone else has already looked.
Do I need capital to start?
Not for this part. Finding and checking an opportunity costs reading time only, and doing it before raising anything is what makes the raise easier — you arrive with evidence instead of a pitch.

Keep reading

Every guide

How to find, test and value an opportunity — the whole series.