What validation is, and what it is not
Validation is establishing that a problem already costs identifiable people something measurable, and that they have already tried and failed to solve it. It is not a survey, a landing page with an email box, or a friendly conversation with someone who wants to encourage you. Those measure politeness and curiosity, both of which are abundant and free.
The three questions
Ask these of the evidence, and of any person you can reach. All three are about what has already happened.
- When did you last hit this problem, and what did you do about it? A date and an action. Vagueness here means it is not a live problem.
- What did you try before giving up, and what did it cost you? This produces your competitor list and your price ceiling in one answer.
- What are you doing about it today? The honest answer is usually "nothing" or "a spreadsheet", and that is the thing you actually have to beat.
A demand check you can finish in a weekend
Pick the problem. Collect thirty public posts describing it, from at least three different places, all from the last ninety days. For each, record who wrote it, what they had tried, and whether money appears. Then count distinct people, count how many mention paying for anything, and split the thirty by date to see whether the second half is thicker than the first.
Three numbers, two days, and no code. If you cannot find thirty posts, that is the strongest result the exercise can give you, and it is worth more than the six months you did not spend.
Signals that mean stop
The evidence is one thread. Everyone describing the problem also names a free tool that solves it. Nobody mentions money anywhere. The posts are all older than a year. Every enthusiastic response comes from someone who would not be the buyer. Any one of these is enough to put the idea down and pick up the next one, which is the point of validating cheaply.
Signals that mean go
Strangers in unrelated places describe the same problem in different words. Several of them built a workaround, which means they paid in labour. At least one names a price they pay today and resents. The evidence is thicker in the last month than in the first. And the products that exist are visibly aimed at a different, larger customer than the people complaining.