Lo ngại về sự lỗi thời của phần cứng AI

…to even consider it, especially with prices being this ridiculous. I'm fully anticipating AI hardware demand to dry up once Anthropic and OpenAI start tanking financially in a few years after missing earnings and investors and banks wanting their loans paid back combined with more folks realizing that LLMs cannot…

Its bad if the expected demand is an illusion. For example, when a company builds out a data center they don't build it for demand today, they build it for the demand they expect when the data center is running and for how much they expect demand to grow over the lifetime of the data center (this is a simplification…

It's possible to be economically feasible. It requires the ability to pay off the capex. Not only do they have to pay off their loans in record time (prob 2-3 years), they also have to keep spending every 3 years because the failure rate of GPUs is something like 20%. In addition they need to complete building out the…

1. The whole Burry argument is that AI hardware becomes obsolete faster. If aux hardware can be reused, that works against the argument. Burry’s main argument is depreciation is being understated and the capex vintages will not be paid off before they are essentially useless. This can happen whether or not aux is…

…nd not expose themselves too much or do wild bets that don’t pay off. But looking at the level of capex from hyperscalers, the amount of circular financing by NVIDIA/google/microsoft, the level of debt raised for datacenters (and its associated raising interest rates), the lack of moat for AI labs, the absurd AI labs…